The Next Eleven (N-11), identified in a 2005 paper by Goldman Sachs, are eleven nations projected to emerge as major global economies in the 21st century, following the BRIC countries. Comprising South Korea, Mexico, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam, these countries exhibit promising growth potential.
Basics
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. introduced the concept of the Next Eleven in 2005, which refers to a group of eleven nations with the potential to become major global economies, following in the footsteps of the BRIC nations. The term N-11, introduced alongside the BRIC concept, signifies these emerging economies' potential to influence the 21st-century economic landscape. The BRIC nations, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, and China, had already been acknowledged by Goldman Sachs for their projected economic prowess.
Origins and Selection Criteria
The concept of the Next Eleven emerged in a research paper titled "How Solid are the BRICs?" authored by Jim O'Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman, and Anna Stupnytska, released on December 1, 2005. While the primary focus was on the BRIC nations' performance, a section named "Are There More 'BRICs' Out There? A Look At the N-11" introduced the idea of a broader set of countries with the potential to evolve into global economic powerhouses, albeit at a more gradual pace than the BRICs.
The authors devised a Growth Environment Score (GES) as an assessment tool to evaluate countries' potential for economic growth. The GES encompassed macroeconomic stability, conditions, technological capability, human capital, and political environment. The authors contended that a robust economy thrives in a stable and open economic environment, supported by healthy investments, advanced technology adoption, a well-educated workforce, and a secure political framework. Utilizing mathematical models, the authors predicted the economies of various countries, considering income per capita and economic size, 20 and 45 years into the future from the paper's publication.
The N-11 Countries
South Korea
Referred to as "Korea" in the original paper, South Korea stood out among the N-11 nations. Recognized for its rapid development and growth, South Korea, while trailing behind the BRIC countries, exhibited high potential. Over time, South Korea has demonstrated alignment with the predictions, boasting a robust economy and achieving favorable scores on the GES metrics outlined in the original paper.
Mexico
Mexico also emerged as a notable member of the N-11, characterized by substantial advancements and promising potential. With a swiftly progressing economy, Mexico demonstrated attributes that aligned with the projections laid out in the initial study.
Conclusion
The Next Eleven (N-11) nations, identified in a 2005 Goldman Sachs paper, represent a collection of economies anticipated to make substantial contributions to the global economic landscape, following the trajectory set by the BRIC countries. South Korea and Mexico, among the N-11 members, have showcased noteworthy progress, demonstrating alignment with the projections outlined in the original research. As the 21st century unfolds, these emerging economies bear close observation for their potential to shape the world's economic future.